The Heelers Diaries

the fantasy world of ireland's greatest living poet

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Location: Kilcullen (Phone 087 7790766), County Kildare, Ireland

Sunday, October 06, 2019

synchronicities

Marilyn Vos Savant was frequently described in the Guinness Book Of Records as the world's most intelligent woman.
Her Intelligence Quotient rating had been variously assessed, once coming in at 228 and another time at 188.
These figures were considered impressive by people who believe intelligence can be measured by such things.
In 1990 Marilyn was hosting a letters column in Parade Magazine.
The column was called Ask Marilyn.
Readers could write in with challenges, enquiries, problems, or puzzles.
In September of that year she received and published a letter positing a conundrum based on a television game show format.
In the game show a contestant must choose between three large boxes.
One box contains a Ferrari.
Each of the other boxes contains a goat.
If the contestant picks the box containing the Ferrari, he can keep it.
But he gets a chance to change his mind.
The format of the show requires the contestant to make his choice, and, when he has made it, one box with a goat in it is removed from the remaining two boxes.
The contestant is now allowed to stand by his first choice or to switch to the other remaining box.
What should he do?
Marilyn answered in her Parade column that the contestant should change his box when given the chance.
Consternation ensured.
It became the most controversial answer in the history of her column.
After weeks of often furious feedback, Marilyn stood by her answer.
Still the controversy went on.
Paul Eidos, who was considered by some to be the leading mathematician of the twentieth century, was particularly outraged at Marilyn's conclusion.
In fact her remained outraged up until the moment the problem was trialled through one of the most powerful main frame computers in America, and the data spooling from the computer overwhelming confirmed Marilyn's analysis.
Cut to the kitchen at the Chateau de Healy.
My aged father is filling out a Lottery ticket which he completes for a weekly national competition with prizes in the millions.
I am suggesting to him that there might be ways to improve the odds of winning a given draw without simply buying more tickets.
My brothers Businessman Tom and Doctor Barn are talking to each other about cars.
The Dad and I are engrossed in our speculations.
"The gambler cannot control any variable in a regular lottery," quoth I to the Dad. "Except one. He can do the same numbers every week. If you do the same numbers every week, you have controlled a variable. Your numbers no longer vary. And if those numbers come up, you will win the Lottery. That is the only way you can improve your chances."
Tom and Barn look up sharpish.
"Whaaaaaat?" roars Tom.
"You don't think it would make a difference?" says I innocently.
"It would make no difference at all," interjects Doctor Barn.
"But you've tied down a variable that otherwise might change," says I.
"Wah, ha, ha, ha, ha," says Tom knowledgeably.
"Haaa, haaa, haaaaaaaaaaa," adds Barn by way of affirmation.
"You really think I know nothing about anything, both of you," I muse with quiet dignity.
"No," corrected Tom, "I think you know nothing about the law of probability."
"I know it isn't a law," sez I mysteriously.
"Waaaaaaaaaah, ha, ha, ha," from Tom.
"Oh Lordy." from Barn.
"You see James," says Tom, "the numbers don't know what numbers you did last week."
There was something vaguely offensive in his manner.
"The law of probability is a human perspective," I tell him, "a way of looking at things, a notional inductive form of reasoning, a what if which has no intrinsic definitive actual truth."
The brothers become briefly incapable of speech.
They seem to be flummoxed, on the brink of tears and paralysed with laughter all at the same time.
When they regain control they turn to the Dad.
The dust has settled.
The kitchen is quiet.
"What do you think Daddy?" enquires Tom.
The Dad begins: "Now Tom you must admit..."
Before he can say anything further the two brothers have exploded into renewed gales of laughter.
"He agrees with James," chortles Tom.
Doctor Barn wipes a teary eye.
"A man of your academic accomplishments," he says to the Dad, "it's incredible."
His tone is admonitory but the words are spoken more in sorrow than in anger.
This happened years ago of course.
When all the world was young, lad.
And all the grass was green.
And every goose a swan lad.
And every poet had an IQ around 233.
You've got to feel for me and Marilyn Vos Savant gentle readers.
Life can be hard on the special ones.

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